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No.240 オリジナル英文

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'Perfect Storm' of Factors Driving Up Oil Prices, Say Experts
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American motorists appear to grow more dismayed every time they go to a gasoline station.

The average price for a gallon of fuel rose nearly six cents in the past week alone, and is more than 50 cents higher than a year ago.

While consumers complain, others are pointing fingers.

For Ray Carbone, who heads the New York-based energy trading firm Paramount Options, the issue boils down to three words: supply and demand.

He notes that the world is consuming more fossil fuel each day, led by large, rapidly developing countries like China and India, at a time when global oil production is stagnant.

Despite rising oil consumption, the world's largest oil cartel, OPEC, has resisted calls to boost production.

But OPEC officials are offering no apologies, and scoff at the theory that inadequate supply to meet rising demand lies at the heart of today's elevated oil prices.

Who is right in this debate, the energy traders or OPEC?

They both are, according to Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and senior fellow at the Washington-based Cato Institute. Hanke says, without a doubt, current demand for oil exceeds supply.

But other factors contribute as well.

Hanke says amid uncertainty and volatility in global stock markets, many investors have poured money into commodities such as oil.

This trend, combined with investor assumptions that oil prices will remain high, have helped boost prices further, which has in turn fed more investor speculation in the market.

Taken together, Hanke says, these and other factors have made for a "perfect storm" that relentlessly drives up oil prices with no end in sight.

What can be done about it?

Hanke says oil prices would moderate if supply were increased and world demand leveled off or subsided.

He says prices would also be lower if oil-producing nations reversed the trend towards state monopoly control of their petroleum sectors, if the U.S. government stopped stockpiling emergency oil for its Strategic Petroleum Reserve program, or if the U.S. dollar were to strengthen.

Michael Bowman, VOA News, Washington
by danueno | 2008-04-28 16:39 | オリジナル英文


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